Thursday, May 31, 2012

Germany does not pay for everything. Not yet.

There is a misconception, and not just in America, that Germany pays for bailing out its lazy and/or confused neighbors. But that is simply not true. At least not yet. The bailout fund was designed two years ago to be financed by all Eurozone Member States according to their participation in the European Central Bank. On paper, it should be the 17 of them, but the bailed out countries, Greece, Ireland and Portugal, are excluded and their part is adjusted with a slightly increased contribution from the others.

Germany is the largest contributor, as the largest and richest country in the Monetary Union, and has to back the issuance of 29% of the bonds for the 780 billion euro fund. But everyone is in it. France's share is 22%, Italy's, 19%. Spain's amounts to 12,75%.

In fact, troubled Spain is now the fourth largest contributor to the fund, another argument for Berlin against bailing out the State or its banks. The next one, Netherlands, backs less than half of that share. If the Spanish State were to receive aid, the adjustment of its share would be the most painful so far. Among the three forgiven countries, the largest share would have been for Greece, and just 2,8%. A fund with less partners would be the scenario that Germany has feared in the last two years. The stepping out of Spain would start to compromise seriously the future of the fund itself and its substitute, more permanent one that should be in place next year.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Bailing out Bankia? Not so new

The big news in Spain today is that José Manuel Durao Barroso, president of the European Commission, will suggest to use the European bailout fund to help banks directly, not just States. There are big headlines about it with Bankia in mind. However, this is not new. It has been a long standing position of the Commision, which has not the last word on this (the Eurozone Goverments do).

In July 2010, two months after the birth of the bailout fund, Olli Rehn, the commissioner in charge of Economic and Monetary Affairs, said this money (then 750 billion euros) should be used for banks if needed. He said it first at an off the record briefing. Scared by German reaction, his staff tried to deny it, but then the commissioner said it again, this time on the record.

We weren't talking about Spanish banks then. They were among the best according to the EU banking stress tests. Still in denial, Rehn said, "I don’t believe this will have to be used...The European banking sector is strong overall".